Saturday, September 25, 2010

Home Sale Price Bottom in 2013 and Not Sooner

The pundits in the mainstream media have been calling for a rebound in home prices in the United States for two years now.

Sorry.  They are great cheerleaders but terrible forecasters.  The mainstream press is great at reporting what they hope, not what actually is.

I've been saying the rebound in home prices will not start until 2012 at the earliest.  Here's a blog post I wrote about this subject on June 10, 2009.

Now, finally, nearly a year and a half later here's an article that finally agrees with me.

In fact, my forecasting models are looking worse now than when I evaluated this subject in 2009.  The normal economic bounce from a recession this deep has not occurred and we are in double dip territory, if the recession ever even ended at all.

Warren Buffett says the recession is still ongoing and I have to agree with his analysis, at least in part.  Double dip or single dip, it doesn't matter.  Too many people are still out of work, the governments on every level are broke, and there is just too much real estate available for sale that people do not want and cannot finance even when they do for home prices to rise anytime soon.  Many further market losses are predicted across the nation, greatest in the areas which have become the usual suspects, Las Vegas, Miami, etc.

I really want to report good news but I just can't find any.