2011 just closed out to be the worst year for new home sales since 1963.
The only reason 1963 is cited is because new home sales figures only go back that far. 2011 was also the worst year for new home construction on record.
Where are the gurus who predicted in 2007 that all would be well by 2011?
One now widely discredited guru in the advertising for one of his 2006 seminars claimed that 2007 was "Your Last Chance" to get in on all the real estate bargains. All those foreclosures were going to get quickly scooped up and smart investors were going to make millions by 2008.
Since 2007, real estate prices in this guru's own local market has fallen another 25%. Some last chance, huh?
Investment gurus of all kinds, and especially the "Nothing Down" get-rich-quick in real estate type, sell nothing but optimism. There message is BUY NOW, THINK LATER. Real estate prices are always headed to the moon and if you are smart you will get in on their program---for $495 up front, of course.
The next time you consider buying ANY real estate book, home study course, seminar ticket or whatever, find out what the author was saying about real estate in 2004 and 2007-2008. Most real estate authors have websites these days, Twitter accounts, Facebook, and more.
Before you spend $295, $997, or $2,500 or more on some real estate investing course, find out how good a prognosticator your future instructor/teacher/guru really has been in the past.
If you get nothing but bullish sentiments both times you can see with your own eyes how good there 2012 predictions will be---which I'm sure are 1,000% bullish, brimming with nothing but blue skies and clear sailing ahead.
For the record, I was warning investors in both 2004 and 2007 NOT TO BUY properties.
I'm warning you still.
U.S. residential real estate is a bust until at least 2020. Basing a retirement plan or future income needs on single family home values is reckless and downright silly.
