Wednesday, June 4, 2014

Next Recession Due

Here are some interesting statistics to think about.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official organization which keeps records of such facts, the Great Recession which began in December 2007 ended in June 2009.

Historically, the two longest recessions in American history lasted 16 months (1973-1975 and 1981-1982).  The Great Recession was 18 months.  A person predicting the end of the really bad Great Recession at its start would have been nearly correct, off by just two months.

Historically as well, the average economic expansion since the end of the Second World War has been 57 months.

If the current economic expansion began in June 2009 and is 57 months in length, the next recession can be expected to begin in March 2014.

What happened in the first quarter of 2014?  US GDP declined 1%, the first contraction in U.S. economic growth in three years.

Food for thought.

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